Doctor Tony Beatton
Visiting Fellow, Queensland University of Technology (QUT)

I have no long-run information on this, but, if they become an average person in their new society I would expect their wellbeing to be similar to the societal average. plus or minus the effect of the trauma from leaving their former home country under duress.

Professor Martin Binder
Professor of Socio-Economics at Bundeswehr University Munich

I am not aware of research on the long-run impact of such displacement on well-being but would imagine there to be a scarring effect at least in the short-run.

Professor Richard Easterlin
Professor of Economics, University of Southern California

Refugees typically go to countries that are more advanced in economic development and health circumstances, and end up in lower socio-economic status than the native born.

Professor Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell
Professor of Economics, IAE-CSIC

"Letting aside the trauma of experiencing a war, evidence on migrants, which it is however not the same as fleeing from a war, seems to indicate that migrants tend to increase their happiness level after migration (with some exceptions) (Hendriks et al., 2018). There seems to a positive selection (personality traits that correlate with happiness have a larger probability to migrate) and migrants tend to compare, at least at the beginning, with the host country income and other economic outcomes (Brockmann, H., 2021).

Of course there is also deception and disappointment if expectations are not met; and migrants might be socially more isolated than at home, take them time to adapt, might feel discriminated, and miss their beloved ones.

In general however migrants seem to not reach the happiness levels of the natives, which can be explained by migrants slowly incorporating the locals in their reference group(Hendriks et al., 2021). In fact, migrants might face a trade-off between assimilating into the local networks and getting the benefits from access to higher waves and the costs from shifting their reference group from the origin to the destination country.

Brockmann, H., 2021. Why Are Newcomers so Happy? Subjective Well-Being of First-Generation Immigrants in Germany. Front. Hum. Dyn., 29 September 2021.

Hendriks,M., Burger,M., Ray, J.,&Esipova, N. .Do international migrants increase their happiness
and that of their families by migrating? In J. Helliwell, R. Layard, & J. Sachs, World happiness
report 2018 (pp. 45–66), New York, NY: UNSustainable Development SolutionsNetwork
"

Professor Carol Graham
Leo Pasvolsky Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

I do not have a comment. I think it depends very much on the circumstances they both leave and find themselves in.

Professor Gigi Foster
Professor, School of Economics, UNSW School of Economics

My reading of the wellbeing literature indicates that while the traumas experienced by such refugees understandably impact negatively upon their mental health in the short to medium run, in the longer run there is improvement and assimilation into the new environment. On a long enough timescale, this recovery process will deliver wellbeing levels similar to the receiving country's population. Individual cases may differ, such as in settings where the trauma was particularly awful and inadequately managed, or where the person is too old to experience the full trajectory of recovery.

Professor Paul Frijters
Professorial Research Fellow, CEP Wellbeing Programme, London School of Economics

I tried to find specific research on this question, but could not find it since the vast literature on refugees is almost entirely focused on short-run effects. I hope the other panel members know of appropriate studies looking for long-run effects. Still, I think the statement is probably true for four distinct reasons: i) whole societies that function well (like Israel) were essentially made up of refugees, ii) we know that migrants in general do largely assimilate in wellbeing terms to the host-population, iii) we know that people get over almost any short-run shock as long as they can rebuild social relations, iv) refugees are likely to move towards a country they can do well in (even if they initially go somewhere else) so will likely flee places they cannot thrive.

Professor Arthur Grimes
Chair of Wellbeing and Public Policy, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington

"There is evidence that migrants who move to other countries have wellbeing in their new countries that is close to that of natives (e.g. see Hendriks et al., 2018; Grimes and Wesselbaum, 2019 and 2020), but there is also some contrary evidence for economic migrants from a poor to a rich country (Stillman et al., 2015). There is very little evidence for refugees. Most likely, many refugees from war-torn countries will suffer from PTSD which will inhibit their long-term wellbeing; subsequent generations are more likely to approach the wellbeing of natives in the new country.

References:
Grimes, Arthur & Dennis Wesselbaum. Moving towards happiness. International Migration, 57(3), 20-40.

Grimes A, Wesselbaum D. 2020. “The Role of Subjective Wellbeing in Cross-Border Migration”. In: Nijkamp P, Kourtit K, Newbold B, Partridge M (eds.) The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, 217-243.

Hendriks, M., Burger, M., Ray, J. and Esipova, N., 2018. Do international migrants increase their happiness and that of their families by migrating? Ch 3 (pp45-67) in Helliwell, J., Layard, R., and Sachs J. (eds.), 2018. World Happiness Report 2018.

Stillman, S., Gibson, J., McKenzie, D., and Rohorua, H.. 2015. Miserable migrants? Natural experiment evidence on international migration and objective and subjective well-being. World Development, 65: 79--93.

"

Professor Ori Heffetz
Associate Professor of Economics, Cornell University and Hebrew University

War is hell, and no amount of wellbeing data could change that. That said, I don't know what the evidence says, but I'm pretty sure that *some* "families forced to flee war zones who end up making a new life in other countries on average succeed in the sense that their long-run wellbeing is similar to other inhabitants of the countries in which they stay." The key part of the statement is "who end up making a new life" --- those who end up less lucky may experience great suffering and stay miserable in the longer run. Btw, it would be interesting to investigate, among those who did succeed, what they think about the entire package, what they think they would have chosen if they could ex ante, etc.

Professor Wenceslao Unanue
Associate Professor, Business School, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

"Recent research (Walther et al., 2020) has shown that the long-run wellbeing of refugees depends on their different living conditions. For example, whereas uncertain legal status and leaving their families are related to decreased life satisfaction, finding a job and building a strong contact with the host society are associated with higher levels of life satisfaction.

References

Walther, L., Fuchs, L. M., Schupp, J., & Von Scheve, C. (2020). Living conditions and the mental health and well-being of refugees: evidence from a large-scale German survey. Journal of immigrant and minority health, 22(5), 903-913. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10903-019-00968-5
"

Professor Mark Wooden
Professorial Research Fellow and Director of the HILDA Survey Project, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne

While there is considerable heterogeneity in outcomes, research mostly finds forced migration associated with anxiety, depression and other mental health disorders. In part these are a direct consequence of the traumatic experiences that precipitated migration, but refugees often face many other stressors on arrival in their new country (eg as a result of detainment in camps, language barriers, unemployment, discrimination, separation from family, and the list goes on). With time many of these stressors abate and thus well-being levels will gradually rise. While there is again heterogeneity across studies (and across countries) my reading of the literature is that the weight of research evidence suggests that catch-up tends to be incomplete, and that immigrant groups still report lower levels of life satisfaction than native populations may years after migration. I suspect these gaps will be larger and more persistent for refugee groups, and especially where there are marked cultural differences between source and host country.

Doctor Tony Beatton
Visiting Fellow, Queensland University of Technology (QUT)

Unless the refugee camp is a five star hotel, these people are in limbo, with unsatisfied expectations. They will be miserable.

Professor Martin Binder
Professor of Socio-Economics at Bundeswehr University Munich

Living conditions in long-term camps would prevent this.

Professor Richard Easterlin
Professor of Economics, University of Southern California

Same as previous

Professor Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell
Professor of Economics, IAE-CSIC

"Migrants in camps will never be able to secure a good life for them or their children and their happiness will be low. All issues I discussed in Q1 do not apply to refuges in long-term camps. Their quality of life in these camps is very low and in addition they are isolated and prevented from any possible integration into the country (even if they are allowed to work). Although at the beginning those who flee from war might feel relieve to be in a safe place, it might not take super long before they become frustrated from being deprived of having a normal life. Current evidence shows that these refufees are in poor mental health (van de Wiel et al., 2021)

van de Wiel, W., C. Castillo-Laborde, F. UrzÃ, M. Fish & W.F. Scholte, 2021. Mental health consequences of long-term stays in refugee camps: preliminary evidence from Moria. BMC Public Health: 21: 1290.

"

Professor Carol Graham
Leo Pasvolsky Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

I think the reason is obvious. How can they integrate?

Professor Gigi Foster
Professor, School of Economics, UNSW School of Economics

Being in a camp - separated from others and unable to enjoy normal life - is a persistent stressor. The evidence suggests that this stressor blocks the healing, recovery and assimilation process.

Professor Paul Frijters
Professorial Research Fellow, CEP Wellbeing Programme, London School of Economics

The literature on long-run mental health in refugee camps (eg van de Wiel et al. 2021) finds that i) mental health outcomes are worse than normal in these camps, ii) the longer the wait till having a settled visa status the worse the mental health, iii) stayers in long-term camps are often seen as low-status and inferior by locals, conducive to poor wellbeing. So the statement is probably true particularly because we know people do not fully adapt to low status.

Professor Arthur Grimes
Chair of Wellbeing and Public Policy, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington

I can think of no examples in which refugees held in long-term camps have wellbeing that is remotely close to that of natives. One example is in Australia where refugees are held in poor conditions for extensive periods and where riots and suicides occur in the camps as a result of the degrading treatment by the Australian authorities. These debilitating wellbeing outcomes contrast hugely with the high SWB both of Australian natives and of 'legal' migrants to Australia.

Professor Ori Heffetz
Associate Professor of Economics, Cornell University and Hebrew University

Again, I haven't seen the evidence, but I have no reason to expect average wellbeing in long-term refugee camps to equal wellbeing outside the camps.

Professor Wenceslao Unanue
Associate Professor, Business School, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

Based on my previous answer, refugees well-being will be lower than locals well-being. For instance, refugee's uncertain legal status, the lack of permanent jobs and small contact with the host society will play a key role.

Professor Mark Wooden
Professorial Research Fellow and Director of the HILDA Survey Project, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne

Long-term immigrant detention has consistently been shown to result in long-term psychological harm. Further these health impacts, together with feelings of insecurity and injustice and low self-esteem that long-term detention fosters, can stay with refugees well after release. While some detainees may be able to overcome these hurdles, my strong expectation is that for the average refugee, long-term detention has scarring effects that persist throughout life.